Happy New Year

COT chart for EURUSD

Very significant positioning of Commercials versus Funds... we tend to take this as a long term buy signal as we see such extremes.
Should we see such follow through negated, we would rverse the signal to be bearish for EURO.

GBPUSD ANALYSIS

This posted chart may have been my first mention of the possible “head and shoulder” for the weekly GBPUSD chart . It was a COT related chart (take a look) <>This was a chart dated 8-18-2011 <>

Has been a while

Here is a look at what a three Month chart(3 month candles) looks like for the AUDJPY pair. I produced it in MT4 with a period converter. I think this might be an additional tool for analysis. It sort of clears the view for certain things. Interesting view onto “fractals”.

My Twitter account http://www.twitter.com/CJOLars

DOW Topping?

This chart has been looked over and created by me this morning as Bernanke has blown some air into the fire and then let it cool again.

I am watching this like a halk, and watching many other things e.g. Europe

EURUSD extremes

Commodity Futures <> EURUSD COT and Price Charts <> http://ow.ly/i/aXEK

Federal Budget

The Only Two Charts That Matter For The US, And A Q&A On The Fiscal “Debate” From Goldman Sachs

http://bit.ly/ebrUBc

PBS documents the evolution of our financial crisis over the past 20 years
In The Warning, veteran FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk unearths the hidden history of the nation's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. At the center of it all he finds Brooksley Born, who speaks for the first time on television about her failed campaign to regulate the secretive, multitrillion-dollar derivatives market whose crash helped trigger the financial collapse in the fall of 2008.

http://video.pbs.org/video/1302794657

YIELDS

Just took this up to date snapshot of my “Yields” chart (EMU/UST) <> something in the bushes? Feels like it !!! This chart was done in MT4 and looks extremely heavy ahead of US central bank decision.

“Inside Job” - The Wall Street Horror Movie, For Free

“Inside Job” - The Wall Street Horror Movie, For Free

Hopefully watching or buying this film won’t be a pointless act, even though it can rightly feel that way. As Charles Ferguson reminded us during his Oscar acceptance speech, we are three years beyond the Wall Street crisis and taxpayers (you) got fleeced for billions. But still not one Wall Street exec is facing criminal charges. Welcome to your plutocracy…

http://bit.ly/hjWvq9

Brazil sees capital flows

Brazil sees capital flows as threat to stability

Brazil’s central bank defended efforts to erect barriers to foreign money, arguing a deluge of capital was pressuring inflation and threatening the stability of financial markets.

http://reut.rs/hndHee

US DOLLAR FLOWS TO WHERE IS VALUE

Dollar Flows into EEM <> STRONG !! Took this shot just now early Sunday here.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/unintended-consequences-2/

G7 Interventions to save the up markets <>

This slide (overlay chart) shows what Dollar flows did in the hours after the brutal central bank interventions by G7 nations. I was fascinated <>

http://bit.ly/ht2XEF <> Nuclear meltdown Japan <> Cooling failed

Effects of Japan earthquakes on economy (Kobe)

You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets. -Peter Lynch

Kobe Earthquake’s Impact on the Nikkei and $/Yen

SPXA200R <> Great Indicator

Worth while to not forget about this chart. It will measure stocks above/below 200 MA. We are seeing momentum to the downside. Look at MACD and where the curve sits with the 50MA

Crude Oil Craze <> Fear over supply/ MENA

Here is a nice COT chart for WTI _CRUDE OIL. you can see that the longs are managed money and not hedgers. It looks like a bubble type situation.

China is quite large a country

Which countries match the GDP, population and exports of Chinese provinces?

http://www.economist.com/node/18233380

CANADIAN DOLLAR COT SIGNALS

LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION

Oil and The Dollar

The US Dollar has fallen across-the-board. While Ben Bernanke has insisted that the impact of higher energy prices on the US economy will be minimal, the markets are either taking the opposite view or are punishing the Dollar for the Fed’s dovishness. In other words, if Bernanke isn’t concerned about oil, he probably won’t cap QE2, and certainly won’t steer any interest rate hikes in the near-term.

CANADIAN DOLLAR VIEWED

Noting the COT index chart for the Canadian Dollar(bearish extremes) <>Ashraf was recommending EURCAD as a pair to trade <> http://ow.ly/i/8QFy

Dollar Flows Unveiled here <>

I created this chart in MT4, and I have been watching it with great interest. The unusual behavior of DX is seen here as flows drift into EEM and EURO land. The Dollar appears to be loosing its luster.

Saudi Arabia/ Mideast_Africa now in focus for the markets <> BE CAREFUL between now and 3-20-11 <> Things could get very hot <>

SAUDI ARABIA DROPPING <> OIL

Fari Posted this chart relating to his market timing webinar from yesterday. He was talking about the Middle East. For his latest Market Timing webinar link go to Hamzei Analytics website and search for it. There is a download link for free.

Download link Location for Fari Hamzei's webinar from yesterday <> http://eduwebs.hamzeianalytics.com/FH_030311.wmv

TODAY <> expecting NFP

At a time when equity indices appear increasingly vulnerable to rising oil prices and Mid-Eastern events, a broad sell-off in risk currencies may also bring about the usual reaction of rising bond yields in Portugal, Ireland and Spain

DJIA30 developing GARTLEY pattern ???

This could be a bearish scenario for the DJIA30 and a "Gartley" possibility <>

Fractal Shape <> 5Min Volatility <>

Just recording what I watched last night during London open volatility with EURUSD 5Min chart http://ow.ly/i/8L4M <>

Chinese Realestate Bubble?

Financial Sense Newshour, Jim Puplava welcomes back Puru Saxena,Puru discusses with Jim emerging market economies, the danger of Chinese inflation, http://ow.ly/468AY

Interview with Dr. Doom <> MARC FABER

Marc Faber McAlvany Interview 23 February 2011. http://ow.ly/44nxp

Doodling in Math: Sick Number Games

Doodling in Math: Sick Number Games

Amazing video to watch !

ZURICH AXIOMS (A great Book)

The Fifth Major Axiom: on Patterns
Minor Axiom V.
Beware the Historian’s Trap.
Minor Axiom VI.
Beware the Chartist’s illusion.
Minor Axiom VII.
Beware the Correlation and Causality Delusions.
Minor Axiom VIII.
Beware the Gambler’s Fallacy.

Strategy
Now let’s see specifically how the Fifth Axiom advises you to handle your money.
The Axiom warns you not to see order where order does not exist. This doesn’t mean you should despair of ever finding an advantageous bet or a promising investment. On the contrary, you should study the speculative medium in which you are interested -–the poker table, the art world, what-ever it is – and when you see something that looks good, take your best shot.
But don’t be hypnotized by an illusion of order. Your studying may have improved the odds in your favor, but you still cannot ignore the overwhelmingly large role of chance in the venture. It is unlikely that your studying has created a sure thing for you, or even a nearly sure thing. You are still dealing with chaos. As long as you remain keenly alert to that fact, you can keep yourself from getting hurt.

The Zurich Axioms | The Big Picture <> http://ow.ly/44h33

CANADIAN DOLLAR (COT INDEX)

COT Index positioning image getting quite bearish at this point (Note!)

JAPANESE FISCAL YEAR

In Japan, the government's financial year runs from April 1 to March 31.

IMF after DAVOS (SDR EVOLUTION)

Jim Rickards <> Special Saturday Pre-Release (audio interview at King World News):

http://ow.ly/44drQ

I consider this interview with Jim a very important one to take in carefully as Jim talks about the latest global currency developments at the IMF after Davos.

Imperial Dollar

“Middle Eastern investors appear to prefer the euro as a more stable and secure currency these days, while the idea of buying ‘imperialist’ U.S. dollars may not appeal to your average North African dictator,”(from a Bloomberg article)

http://bloom.bg/fcXmLK

GLOBAL QUANTATATIVE EASING?

GLOBAL QE to be expected?? (Jim Rickards)

OH LORD!

Very important Jim Rickards Interview <> Jim Rickards: Senior Managing Director for Market Intelligence at Omnis, Inc <> http://ow.ly/43Yo3

Detailing the real possibility of a global QE and also US QE3 (audio interview not to be missed)

EURO_DOLLAR

Shorting Eurodollars Before the Liquidity Bubble Pops (Read This)

http://bit.ly/eRJ72I

Eurodollars are foreign dollar deposits outside the U.S. banking system in foreign banks. Despite the name, these are not just European banks, although those would constitute the majority. Some are in the Middle East in places such as Bahrain (Forces Fire on Protesters). So in essence, eurodollars are dollar deposits in non-U.S. banks.

GBPUSD at Major Resistance

Here a quick look at GBPUSD M1 chart from 2002 on <> where are we now?

Weekend FX viewing

This is where to look on weekends when my broker is closed.

gbpusd level <> TO NOTE

Here another look at weekly GBPUSD chart with incoming TL blended in besides 75% and Resistance

Ashraf was talking about this chart today in his video commentary $SPX:$TNX //interesting indicator to watch! (SP vs. 10yr Yields). Fascinating things that Ashraf has to share with us.

Divergence between HSENG and SSE

I am wondering what makes this enormous divergence between Shanghai and Hongkong indexes.
This should be watched.

Bernanke ZERO RATE EFFECT

Bonds are dropping

This was the case of last Friday for the 2 yr spread between EU and US (prices)

This is an amazing chart showing the opportunity in agriculture. Too high to buy into now though.